Greetings, Everyone! Welcome back to a new semester.
Lots in the news but as relates to American government, the biggest story seems to be all the political posturing around the first year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. There are a couple of different threads to that story.
First is the real assessment of where the gulf area recovery efforts are after one year. The answer seems to be – they are limping along. A Wall Street Journal article (subscription only) says that the recovery is only patchy and much remains to be done (Christopher Cooper, In New Orleans, Recovery is Sporadic) and a Washington Post piece on Mississippi says the same thing (Peter Whoriskey, In Miss., Hope of Going Home Dwindles) The poignant story of one family’s post-storm travails in Slate gives a personal perspective – and this from an educated and articulate writer well able to navigate the bureaucratic nightmares storm survivors face. (Blake Bailey, My Year of Hurricanes) The plight of poorer, less well educated citizens is much tougher.
A second thread of the story that is receiving lots of coverage is the political aspect of the whole thing. Democrats are convinced that Katrina is a weak spot for the Republicans as the midterm congressional elections approach this November. Many analysts expect major Republican losses (not abnormal for a midterm election – see KTR p. 286) and believe that the Republicans could lose control of the House of Representatives in that election, and possibly the Senate as well, though that is a longer shot for the Dems. The Democrats think the Republicans are especially vulnerable over the issue of governmental competence as demonstrated by the response to Katrina and the waging of the Iraq war, and so they are playing up the Katrina anniversary to keep the issue alive. See the Washington Post, Michael Abramowitz, Bush, Top Democrats Flock to Coast.
Meanwhile the Bush administration, believing that the President lost valuable standing with the public over Katrina, sees this anniversary as an opportunity for him to tout the rebuilding efforts down there and to regain some stature. The result is that New Orleans, still the scene of massive destruction, has become a political stage. (New York Times, Anne Kornblutt, Bush Visits Gulf Coast, Stressing Progress)
A president is only as strong as his approval ratings (KTR, pp. 343-344 and below here) because he needs public approval to give him weight with Congress to get his agenda passed. Since Bush’s ratings have been so low this year, many Republicans not only are not supporting him in Congress but are not even mentioning him in their reelection campaigns. It is important for him to try to regain popularity. But as Frank Newport of the Gallup organization argues (Little Impact of Katrina on Bush’s Overall Job Ratings), while the public evaluation of Bush declined after Katrina, the lasting damage seems to taken place this year, and owes as much to public disapproval of the war and rising gas prices as to a negative image of him as a strong and effective leader after Katrina. It's not clear that returning to New Orleans and hailing the reconstruction efforts that have been achieved will give him the boost he needs.